US Midterm Spending Is Headed for a Record Near $12bn
Open Secrets projects the 2026 midterm cycle will cost almost $12bn, about 30% above 2022, with Super Pacs and a few very large donors driving the surge.
One donor stands out in a record-setting campaign. Elon Musk has given almost half a billion dollars as of October, and Open Secrets projects the US midterms will cost nearly $12bn in total.
Musk and the Texas Senate race
Musk is the top individual donor by a wide margin. Most of his money went to America PAC, a Super Pac he set up in 2024, and to the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. Texas took the biggest share, where Republican Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico. America PAC has put more than $45m into that contest and around $10m into each of the Senate races in Michigan and Ohio.
Other big donors
The Brennan Center for Justice counts $2.4bn from the top 40 donors by 14 October. That is a record for this point in a midterm cycle. Campaign finance expert Michael Beckel said spending is "shattering records" and more of it comes from the wealthiest donors and groups.
Two groups founded by George Soros gave a combined $102m to liberal groups. Michael Bloomberg, with more than $60m, is the biggest Democratic donor aside from Soros. On the Republican side, Jeff Yass and Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein are among several billionaires who gave over $100m, per FEC filings.
Crypto firms have joined in. Ripple and Coinbase together gave $63m to Super Pacs promoting the industry's interests, according to Brendan J Glavin of Open Secrets.
Why outside groups dominate
Contribution caps apply to what individuals, parties and Pacs can give directly to candidates. Super Pacs face no cap on what they accept from individuals, companies, unions and other committees. They cannot pass the money to candidates directly. Spending it in a candidate's favour is allowed.
Pacs and Super Pacs account for roughly $5.5bn of the spending filed so far, more than half. Their outlay in the last couple of months almost doubled.
Ads take most of the money
AdImpact counted $11.15bn in advertising through the end of October. Broadcast television is still the top beneficiary, Beckel said, though digital ad spending keeps growing. Ad money follows the same map as Musk's: the Senate races in Michigan, Texas and Ohio come first, then Iowa and Maine.
How the projection was made
Filings with the Federal Election Commission run to mid-October and show more than $9.5bn spent. Campaigns, parties and outside groups report to the FEC, and full totals will not exist until after the vote. Open Secrets therefore extrapolated from past cycles to reach $11.9bn, about 30% more than the 2022 midterms.
Our View
The $11.15bn ad figure and the $11.9bn projection come from different trackers, AdImpact and Open Secrets, so they are not a like-for-like pair. Final FEC reports after election day will show how close the projection was. They will also show how much of the late surge in Super Pac money came from the same small circle of donors.
Source: BBC News