Economists Expect Only 59,000 US Jobs for October
Forecasters see a weak payroll gain in Friday's report but a steady 4.2% unemployment rate, because fewer people are available to work.
Friday's US jobs report is expected to show very little hiring. Yet the unemployment rate should hold steady, and economists say the reason lies in a shrinking pool of workers.
What forecasters expect
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October nonfarm payrolls on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. In the Dow Jones consensus, economists look for a gain of 59,000 jobs. That is a slight rise from the 29,000 produced in September. The unemployment rate is forecast to stay at 4.2%.
Hiring has stalled without layoffs, and the number of long-term jobless keeps growing while more positions are open.
Why weak hiring may be enough
ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud says the economy no longer needs as many new jobs to keep employment stable, because fewer people are available to work. She points to an aging workforce pushing people into retirement, decades of low birth rates and a significant drop in immigration, which reduces prime-age employment.
That makes the labor market a moving target. Bachaud asks whether the focus should shift to productivity and wage growth, especially for lower-wage workers. She says the economy will not go back to adding 200,000 or more jobs a month.
Weak hiring, few layoffs
Payrolls grew by an average of only 35,000 a month between January 2025 and September 2026. Only one month topped 200,000 new jobs, and seven months lost jobs. The unemployment rate rose just 0.2 percentage point over the same stretch.
The labor force shrank by 434,000 during the period and is down by just under a million since September 2025. The participation rate fell 0.8 percentage point to 61.8%.
Other readings are firmer. Initial jobless claims slid to 189,000 last week, the lowest since July and close to the lowest level since 1969. Job openings rose by 333,000 in September. Quits reached 3.36 million, the most in a year and a half, a proxy for confidence in finding another job.
The long-term unemployed
The weaker side is long-term joblessness. Since January 2025, the count of people jobless for over 25 weeks has risen by 495,000. BLS data through September put the average spell of unemployment at 24.8 weeks, 2.8 weeks longer.
Fed officials broadly see the labor market as solid, but some questions are open. Bachaud says that people with jobs are fine, but those out of work find it very hard to break back in, because few people are leaving jobs and employers are not expanding.
Source: CNBC