Pagosa Springs Braces for Historic Flood as Rain Hits South-West
Evacuations were ordered in Arizona and New Mexico as heavy rain caused flash flooding, and a Colorado town was warned its river could pass its 1911 flood level.
Heavy rain turned into flash flooding across the US south-west on Sunday, and a small Colorado town was warned of a river rise that could pass its 1911 record. Mandatory evacuations were ordered in Arizona and New Mexico.
Arizona's rain total
The rain began on Saturday evening, and forecasters expected it to last through Monday. The National Weather Service puts the possible total at up to 4in (10cm), with a run of Pacific storm systems feeding it. "We are getting two or three months of rain in a span of a couple of days," said Aaron Hardin, a weather service meteorologist in Tucson.
Flood warnings and watches were issued for nearly all of Arizona, parts of southern Utah, south-western Colorado and western New Mexico, and part of southern Nevada. The warnings also cover the Four Corners, a sparsely settled area where the states meet.
Evacuations and rescues
In Sedona, officials ordered people living near Oak Creek to leave at once because floodwater had trapped several of them in their homes. Yavapai county and Camp Verde gave similar orders for areas by swollen rivers and creeks. In Gila county, Gisela, a community of several hundred people on Tonto Creek, was ordered to evacuate completely.
Tucson, some 230 miles south of Sedona, was hit by flash floods, with rivers overflowing and boats used to pull people to safety. In Flagstaff, rain fell almost without a break, flooding roads and overwhelming storm drains. Police said a man slipped into fast-moving water and was not seen resurfacing, and were searching for him. Northern New Mexico also issued evacuation orders, and several highways closed.
Pagosa Springs and the San Juan River
Pagosa Springs, a Rockies town of more than 2,000, close to ski resorts, warned of potentially "catastrophic flooding". The San Juan River was forecast to crest above 20ft (6.1 meters) late on Sunday night.
The county sheriff's office put that in context: in the 1911 flood, which destroyed most of the town as it stood then, the river crested at about 17.8ft. By sundown the water stood near 14ft, county spokesperson Vicky Schaffer said. The town's access roads were shut, and people outside the evacuation zones were told to remain indoors.
Our View
Whether the San Juan River tops the 17.8ft reached in 1911 is the main question for Pagosa Springs, where the river had already reached about 14ft by sundown. The missing man in Flagstaff and the full evacuation of Gisela are the other open questions, since the first reports do not say how either ended. Updates from the county and the weather service on Monday should show how the rain expected through Monday played out.
Source: The Guardian